I get this question constantly in Canada.

"Why would a government that ran and won on First Past the Post ever implement electoral reform?"

It is fair as a hot take, but it's an incredibly simplistic way of looking at politics. Why did men agree to give women the right to vote? Why did white majorities ever enfranchise minorities? Etc.

Of course, sometimes politicians just do the right thing, but let’s set optimism aside for a second. The more frequent answer is the beautiful, predictable engine of self-interest. Changing the rules is often a great way to prolong a political career.

It Happens More Than You Think

Proportional representation (PR) isn't some impossible unicorn. In the last ten years alone we've seen transitions and significant expansions to proportional systems in places like:

  • Chile (2015): Ditched their restrictive binominal system for open-list proportional representation.
  • Nepal (2015): Adopted a mixed-member parallel system in their new constitution after years of political instability.
  • Armenia (2015): Scrapped their majoritarian seats entirely to adopt a more proportional parliamentary system.
  • Mongolia (2024): Shifted from majoritarian block voting to a mixed proportional electoral system

What's interesting is in two of these cases (Armenia and Mongolia), the reason for the change was clearly self-interest on the behalf of the ruling party. They looked at the math, saw the writing on the wall, and realized that implementing electoral reform can give an otherwise finished government another electoral kick of the can.

The Mongolian Miracle of Self-Preservation

Mongolia perfectly illustrates this self-interested dynamic. It is entirely relevant to Canada today because we are watching it play out right now in one of our provinces.

In 2020, Mongolia’s ruling party, the Mongolian People's Party, pulled off a classic first-past-the-post-style heist. Thanks to the country's majoritarian electoral system, they secured a massive 81.5% of the seats (62 out of 76) with just 44.9% of the popular vote.

It was absolute, unchecked power. But looking ahead to the next election cycle, their polling looked bad. The public was frustrated, and the party realized that the FPTP boot was about to violently shift to the other foot. Under a winner-take-all system, a drop frequently doesn't just mean a modestly smaller caucus. It means a brutal, sweeping loss where you are completely wiped off the electoral map by a united opposition putting an entire political machine out of office and work.

They had a choice. They could go down with the majoritarian ship, or they could change the rules of the game.

Choose life, Mongolian People's Party!

In 2023, they pushed through electoral reform. They expanded the parliament and introduced proportional representation for a massive chunk of the seats. The result? In the 2024 election, they took a hit at the ballot box just as the polls predicted, but they didn't die. They won a slim majority and actually survived to form the government. By abandoning the system that gave them absolute power, they saved themselves from irrelevance.

Live by FPTP, Die by FPTP

This brings us back home.

In 2022, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) won the majoritarian game, winning an absurd 72% of the seats (90 out of 125) with just under 41% of the vote. This was especially annoying at the time because they had promised during the previous election to fix the electoral system.

However, just 3 years later, the boot is now on the other foot. A drop in support to around 14% is working out to... let's see... possibly 0% of the seats? This is obviously extremely funny and came right on the heels of Justin Trudeau's reflection that electoral reform was his biggest regret in office when the Liberals were looking at their own crushing defeat.

The Parti Québécois and Quebec Liberals are waiting in the wings to ride that exact same distorted voting math to an unchecked majority. Thanks to completely bungling this opportunity to change the voting system, the CAQ is almost guaranteed to be a historical two-term footnote.

The CAQ have a new leader lined up to go down with the ship. Quebec's Kim Campbell is facing an even worse fate than the Mongolians did. Like the Liberals under Trudeau they're still in denial and not thinking like a calculating political operator. They could have a moderate sized caucus at the next election of 15-20 MNAs to rebuild from, but instead they'll be lucky to get a single seat.

A Carney-style turnaround is the exception, not the rule. A much safer bet is electoral reform. In the case of the CAQ, doing so would simply be following through on their election promise and there is literally a bill waiting to be passed.

History is absolutely overflowing with examples of politicians doing the "right" thing for the most cynical, self-interested reasons imaginable. For governing politicians in Canada witnessing the mass-layoff of 80 CAQ members, there is a lesson here.

The big ambitious egos of politics go hand in hand with self-belief, it's what powers people into office in the first place. But that delusional thinking eventually catches up with people on the other end of their career.

But because they're a brilliant leader with a compelling narrative about how the polls will change soon, they'll take you down with them. Needlessly synchronizing the end of their political career with yours.

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